- As an Eagles' fan, I was impressed at how well they stood up to the Saints and how close they made that game, but then I realized something: Jeff Garcia essentially cancelled out All-Pro Drew Brees, and Philly still lost. I wasn't expecting them to win, but if someone told me Garcia would have almost identical numbers as Brees, I would've assumed Philly would be playing for a trip to the Super Bowl. Anyway, they lost the game not because of Reid deciding to punt (any one who's ever played Madden knew that was a bad plan) but because of their run defense, and it's a shame because what has Philly invested in more than their d-line? In recent years they've spent 3 first round picks (McDougle, Bunkley, Patterson) and, despite their tendency not to spend money, 2 of their 3 biggest free agent signings were defensive linemen (Kearse and Howard). Whether it's injuries or underachievers, they never were able to put a solid group together all year, and it's a shame because that was supposed to be their strong point. They couldn't get any penetration to stop Deuce and they couldn't come near Brees. I don't mind Philly losing if their weaknesses (which they have plenty of) were exploited, but when your alleged strength holds you back, it's depressing, it's pathetic... it's Philadelphia
- Marty Schottenheimer has been the coach most under fire this week, but Brian Billick was equally awful. How do they only run 20 times against the Colts (only 13 going to their primary running back) in a game that was close throughout? Remember when this guy was an offensive genius? Neither do I. And wasn't Steve McNair brought in to win games exactly like this? Talk about your all time backfires.
- I didn't see most of the Seahawks/Bears game so I don't want to say anything stupid, but I do find it funny that people refuse to admit Matt Hasselbeck is a bad quarterback. Forget that he was in the Super Bowl last year. He's not accurate and makes some awful decisions. People will learn soon enough.
Now that I'm done with that, on to the Conference Championships. I just want to preface this by saying these games are very, very hard to pick.
Saints (+2.5) over Bears
Here, we have a dome team travelling to Chicago in January, something that's typically a red flag when it comes to making picks. On the other hand, every one and their mother seems to be picking the Saints, another red flag because typically when there's almost a universally accepted pick, it turns out to be wrong. Both seem to point to picking Chicago, but if I learned anything from the Chargers/Pats game, it reinforced the fact that this is a qb/coach league, so I'll just look at the game from an analytical, logical standpoint and ignore both rules. Anyway, I see the Bears as having an overrated defense, particularly against the pass (remember how they lost in the playoffs last year?). I think Brees can pick them apart all day. Plus, without Tommie Harris, they're gonna have a very, very hard time stuffing a powerful back like Deuce. I don't think Rex will be the downfall of the Bears (he should do ok), I just feel that defense isn't historically good like we all thought it was around week 8. In fact, it's pretty average and can't compensate for an "ok" qb, and that's not enough against the Saints.
Colts (-3) over Patriots
On one hand, we know the Colts have crushed the Pats the last two years in Foxboro. On the other hand, we know Peyton Manning struggles in January and Tom Brady is essentially untouchable (although an interesting stat on Sportscenter showed that Manning has slightly better, albeit still unimpressive, 4th quarter playoff numbers than Brady since 2001, so let's stop deifying Brady and condemning Manning for their big moment performances). On one hand, the Colts are undefeated at home this year. On the other hand, Brady has never lost in a dome. Since all that cancels out, I'm picking the Colts based on one thing: speed. The Patriots struggle against fast defenses. Why? A couple reasons. First off, the quick linebackers on those teams can defend tight ends, so there are no mismatches forced (either a slow linebacker who can't play pass coverage, or forcing opposing teams to play nickel and dime to defend the pass, leaving them vulnerable to Dillon and Maroney). Secondly, the Patriots have no playmakers at their skill positions to make big plays against quick teams, so poor Brady tries to do too much and ends up making some awful mistakes. Some of those picks he threw against the Colts this year were balls he never would have thrown if he had any receivers he could trust to turn a 8 yard slant into a 25 yard gain, but he knew they needed points because they couldn't stop the Colts and he took it upon himself. That's why Denver and Indy have had success against them over the last 2 years, and why the Chargers made Brady look pretty average last week. The Patriots also have one of the slowest defenses in the league, and that doesn't match up well against the Colts in a dome. Too many playmakers in my mind, so I'm going with Indy. And on a side note, how are people tired of Pats/Colts? I know it's overexposed, but isn't it a great story? Can Manning win the big one and go down as one of the greatest qbs of all time, or is he only a great statistical qb? How far can the Brady/Belichick legend go with a team that, in my mind, is actually in a rebuilding stage? How does that not interest football fans? I thought rivalries are what sports are built on. What's a better rivalry than this in the NFL?
Well, you have my picks. Use them wisely and enjoy the games.
No comments:
Post a Comment