Friday, January 12, 2007

Round 2 picks

What's good people? Unfortunately, I'm actually pressed for time these next couple days so I don't have time for a formal introduction right now. Anyway, I'm going to be very brief. Since my colleague already picked the games straight up, I'll pick with the spread just so I'm not regurgitating what was already posted. Anyway, I obviously didn't post last week's games, but you'll have to trust me that I was 3-1 against the spread, only missing Seattle (-2.5). So, let's get to it

Colts (+4) over Ravens
Baltimore has a great defense, but Peyton is undefeated against them in his career and has never really looked confused at anything Baltimore has thrown his way (like he did against the Chargers and Steelers last year). Granted, to my knowledge this is the first year Baltimore frequently uses a 3-4, which theoretically should give Peyton problems, but I like the matchups on the outside too much with Harrison and Wayne. I also like how the Colts run more short routes and Peyton has more check down receivers so the ball is out of his hands quickly (his indecisiveness and happy feet cost them the last 3 years in the playoffs). The only way to stop Manning this year has been to run the ball effectively, sustain drives, and keep him from getting in a rhythm. I don't see Steve McNair and Jamal Lewis pulling that off

Eagles (+5) over Saints
For those who don't know, I have a strong Eagles' bias. But I've managed to convince myself that they match up very well against New Orleans (I'm a jackass). Their offense is much more balanced this year, primarily because of the upgrade at center with Jamaal Jackson and the fact that Shawn Andrews has lost about 30 pounds since last year. Their mobility allows them to pull to the outside, letting Westbrook use his speed on the perimeter which is where he's most effective (as opposed to in between the tackles). I think Philly keeps this close because they'll put up a decent amount of points. Plus, despite the emotional advantage one would assume the Saints have at home, they're only 4-4 in New Orleans this year. I will however admit that the prospect of Brees going against a secondary that will start Roderick Hood and Sean Considine (ugh) scares the crap out of me, but hey, at least we have Jeff Garcia.

Bears (-8.5) over Seahawks
I just remember these teams playing earlier this year and it not being close. I can't get that image out of my head. And we all know Rex Grossman isn't a good quarterback, but he has been relatively serviceable against crappy teams (aside from Arizona and the last game of the year). Seattle's secondary is banged up enough for Grossman to actually be effective, and Chicago is unstoppable if Grossman plays decently.

Patriots (+5) over Chargers
Remember when the Steelers went 15-1 during Roethlisberger's rookie year (including a win against the Pats) primarily by not making mistakes and letting the defense and run game make plays, then in the playoffs Big Ben looked completely lost and threw 5 picks in 2 games, including 3 against the Pats in the conference championship? For some reason I feel a similar scenario for Philip Rivers. He's struggling enough lately as is (December was his worst month in terms of completion percentage and rating) and I just feel Belichick will confuse the poor kid to no end. Plus, I never feel comfortable picking against Tom Brady. If I ever made a rule book for sports gambling, that would probably be in it.

Well, that's all I got for now. Needless to say, now that I actually am posting my picks, I fully expect to go 0-4, but I also don't expect too many people to read this and witness my stupidity, so no harm is done. Enjoy the games fellas.

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