Conference Championships

Like any one else, I have a couple thoughts about last weekend's games before I want to delve into the Conference Championships. Most of the talk has been about the Chargers/Pats game, and rightfully so: it was the most entertaining, had the most "what if?" moments, added proof to two legacies (Marty not able winning the big one, Brady and Belichick being spectacular when it matters), was the easiest to criticize (particularly LT's lack of involvement and Marty's questionable decisions)... the list goes on (although I'm still not sure why Philip Rivers hasn't been talked about more, especially for that horrendous pick he threw in Pats' territory on 2nd and 1). Anyway, I just have a few brief thoughts about the other games of the week:

• As an Eagles' fan, I was impressed at how well they stood up to the Saints and how close they made that game, but then I realized something: Jeff Garcia essentially cancelled out All-Pro Drew Brees, and Philly still lost. I wasn't expecting them to win, but if someone told me Garcia would have almost identical numbers as Brees, I would've assumed Philly would be playing for a trip to the Super Bowl. Anyway, they lost the game not because of Reid deciding to punt (any one who's ever played Madden knew that was a bad plan) but because of their run defense, and it's a shame because what has Philly invested in more than their d-line? In recent years they've spent 3 first round picks (McDougle, Bunkley, Patterson) and, despite their tendency not to spend money, 2 of their 3 biggest free agent signings were defensive linemen (Kearse and Howard). Whether it's injuries or underachievers, they never were able to put a solid group together all year, and it's a shame because that was supposed to be their strong point. They couldn't get any penetration to stop Deuce and they couldn't come near Brees. I don't mind Philly losing if their weaknesses (which they have plenty of) were exploited, but when your alleged strength holds you back, it's depressing, it's pathetic... it's Philadelphia
• Marty Schottenheimer has been the coach most under fire this week, but Brian Billick was equally awful. How do they only run 20 times against the Colts (only 13 going to their primary running back) in a game that was close throughout? Remember when this guy was an offensive genius? Neither do I. And wasn't Steve McNair brought in to win games exactly like this? Talk about your all time backfires.
• I didn't see most of the Seahawks/Bears game so I don't want to say anything stupid, but I do find it funny that people refuse to admit Matt Hasselbeck is a bad quarterback. Forget that he was in the Super Bowl last year. He's not accurate and makes some awful decisions. People will learn soon enough.

Now that I'm done with that, on to the Conference Championships. I just want to preface this by saying these games are very, very hard to pick.

Saints (+2.5) over Bears

Here, we have a dome team travelling to Chicago in January, something that's typically a red flag when it comes to making picks. On the other hand, every one and their mother seems to be picking the Saints, another red flag because typically when there's almost a universally accepted pick, it turns out to be wrong. Both seem to point to picking Chicago, but if I learned anything from the Chargers/Pats game, it reinforced the fact that this is a qb/coach league, so I'll just look at the game from an analytical, logical standpoint and ignore both rules. Anyway, I see the Bears as having an overrated defense, particularly against the pass (remember how they lost in the playoffs last year?). I think Brees can pick them apart all day. Plus, without Tommie Harris, they're gonna have a very, very hard time stuffing a powerful back like Deuce. I don't think Rex will be the downfall of the Bears (he should do ok), I just feel that defense isn't historically good like we all thought it was around week 8. In fact, it's pretty average and can't compensate for an "ok" qb, and that's not enough against the Saints.

Colts (-3) over Patriots

On one hand, we know the Colts have crushed the Pats the last two years in Foxboro. On the other hand, we know Peyton Manning struggles in January and Tom Brady is essentially untouchable (although an interesting stat on Sportscenter showed that Manning has slightly better, albeit still unimpressive, 4th quarter playoff numbers than Brady since 2001, so let's stop deifying Brady and condemning Manning for their big moment performances). On one hand, the Colts are undefeated at home this year. On the other hand, Brady has never lost in a dome. Since all that cancels out, I'm picking the Colts based on one thing: speed. The Patriots struggle against fast defenses. Why? A couple reasons. First off, the quick linebackers on those teams can defend tight ends, so there are no mismatches forced (either a slow linebacker who can't play pass coverage, or forcing opposing teams to play nickel and dime to defend the pass, leaving them vulnerable to Dillon and Maroney). Secondly, the Patriots have no playmakers at their skill positions to make big plays against quick teams, so poor Brady tries to do too much and ends up making some awful mistakes. Some of those picks he threw against the Colts this year were balls he never would have thrown if he had any receivers he could trust to turn a 8 yard slant into a 25 yard gain, but he knew they needed points because they couldn't stop the Colts and he took it upon himself. That's why Denver and Indy have had success against them over the last 2 years, and why the Chargers made Brady look pretty average last week. The Patriots also have one of the slowest defenses in the league, and that doesn't match up well against the Colts in a dome. Too many playmakers in my mind, so I'm going with Indy. And on a side note, how are people tired of Pats/Colts? I know it's overexposed, but isn't it a great story? Can Manning win the big one and go down as one of the greatest qbs of all time, or is he only a great statistical qb? How far can the Brady/Belichick legend go with a team that, in my mind, is actually in a rebuilding stage? How does that not interest football fans? I thought rivalries are what sports are built on. What's a better rivalry than this in the NFL?

Well, you have my picks. Use them wisely and enjoy the games.

Chargers-Patriots Reaction

Wow, what an enjoyable game to watch. As an avid Browns fan and to a smaller extent, a supporter of the Chiefs, it was great for me to watch Bill Belichik square up against marty shottenheimer. What will hold Belichik from going down as the first or second best coach in NFL history will almost certainly be his stint with the Browns in which he coached five years and only had a winning record once before getting fired. my affection for marty shottenheimer had also returned after his last playoff collapse had been fading from my memory, so I knew that I was in for a reminder as to why he is a complete dunce when a playoff game is on the line. As you will see I am going to be very critical of the Chargers in this post outside of LDT and Donnie Edwards. This week we will get the pleasure of hearing once again how Tom Brady "just wins games" and while I generally agree, mr. Brady did his best to not win that game until the Bolts handed it to him on a silver platter.

Perhaps my biggest problem with the decline of the ESPN empire has been that they have completely removed critical anaylsis as part of their m.o. and instead those running the highlights yell stuff like "Bananas" during their highlights. Sean Salisbury started out as a great analyst and after they gave him a running gig ripping apart Johan Clayton, his ego swelled and he decided that he was the be-all of football knowledge. I don't want to get to into this now, but in the future I will write a long post about my issues with how ESPN has changed for the worst since the glory days of Rich Eisen and Kenny mayne.

Back to the game, I am completely disappointed in the Chargers. I myself don't have too much hatred for the Patriots, but I was clearly in favor of a Chargers victory. Their only real weakness as a team heading into the playoffs in my opinion was a first year QB leading the team. Let's make no mistake though, Ladainian Tomlinson is the best player in the NFL and he takes a lot of pressure off of Rivers. Rivers to his credit, did not play terribly, and is certainly not the goat of this game. So let's run through why the Chargers lost this game, and not the Patriots winning.

Eric Parker is my first target. Some people simply cannot handle the pressure of a big game, and if there was anyone on the field today that looked scared or lost, it was mr. parker. Dropped passes in the first quarter that killed drives. A fumbled punt in which he badly misjudged the distance followed by the second dumbest play of the game, in which he tried to pick it up instead of immediately falling on the ball. I'm not sure if Shottenheimer has ever announced to his team that they have the best player in football! Don't do anything dumb, just keep possession and we will run this guy all day. It's a no lose situation! Just a horrendous decision. At that point, I could feel the implosion coming. This airhead play was only to be outdone by marlon mcree, a self-proclaimed future coach in this league. While at first it seemed as if he just got unlucky with Troy Brown making another clutch play, after thinking about this further I realized this: it was fourth down! You don't even need to catch it, knock the ball down and you get better field position! Once again though the Chargers seemed to forget that they had the best back in football on their team. make the patriots prove that they can stop him. if they do, then and only then do they deserve to win that football game last night.

While marty had very little to do with either of those plays, he unfortunately cannot chalk this one up to bad luck. I understand that marty does not call plays on offense or defense, so I am going to blame all 3 of the coaches as a whole for the following decisions. First, that challenge was atrocious. I understand it was unfortunate that mcree made a boneheaded play, and I also understand that if you somehow win that challenge, the game is effectively over. I'm sorry though, terrible challenge. Plain and simple. I know you are up 8, marty, but it's the Patriots, and you might need that timeout later in the game. So after the Pats tied it up, the Chargers had a chance to answer. What would I be doing if i am the offensive coordinator. Well, I'd be giving the ball to Tomlinson, the league mvp, every play and riding my best player. If he can't win this thing for us, then so be it. The series in particular that bothers me was when Ladainian picked up 5-6 yards on first down. Sounds effective enough, especially with a tiring Pats D that hasn't really stopped him all game. Well the next two plays were the worst two offensive calls of the game. Pass, pass? What are they thinking? Even worse, they threw at Asante Samuel on third down. Give credit to Belichik for double teaming Gates on that play and forcing Rivers to go at Asante. The Pats would be wise to re-sign him this offseason. At this point the Chargers deserved to lose despite being the most-talented team on the field and frankly, outclassing the Pats. The last problem I had, which is hard to criticize the d-coordinator for since they were blitzing all game, but on that 3rd and 10 late, I would have had more than 3 DBs and not let Jammer play press coverage. Sit the DBs back at the first down line and make them complete it underneath you. The rest is history. Predictably, the Chargers had no timeouts to work with on their desperation last drive. The 3 yard Gates pass was a terrible decision, perhaps Rivers worst of the game (actually I am forgetting that lob pass that Colvin picked). I liked kicking the field goal with 8 seconds to go instead of running another play. You are facing the best-coached team in the league, too much can go wrong. At that point its a slim chance you are going to win, so let your kicker see if he can make a big time kick. Unfortunately for them, it didn't work out.

Let's make no mistake here, Tom Brady played horribly. He skipped a surefire touchdown at the feet of Ben Watson. He threw 3 picks and it could have been 5 or 6. But if you give that guy a chance at the end, (the guy has ice in his veins) he will forget all of the past and he will come through. You have to admire that. Belichik puts the game in his hands. And this is why the Chargers lost, they needed to put the ball in their best player's hands and they didn't. I am convinced that the Chargers were the best team in the league this year, but if you can't let the best player in the league do his thing, I think you deserve to lose. Eight touches in the second half for Ladainian? Not going to cut it marty.